Fluctuations in federal allocations to state and local governments have significant implications, often leading to budget deficits, delayed salaries, stalled development projects, and mounting debt burdens. This study examines the characteristics of monthly net allocation series received by Ondo State from Nigeria’s Federal Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) between January 2016 and February 2025. The data were standardized, and unit root and stationarity tests were conducted using KPSS and Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests. The series was found to be stationary at first-order difference. To model the standardized net allocation, ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) models were developed following the Box-Jenkins methodology. Model performance evaluation revealed relatively low forecast errors across various metrics. Finally, the fitted ARIMA model was applied for out-of-sample forecasting, with predictions from September 2024 to February 2025 compared against actual FAAC allocations.